Now, about that daughter of a prominent Cardassian military official that Garak spoke of... here.
Then the follow-up story here,
and the conclusion here (with the 'Sons of Tain' comment here).
Interestingly, Garak places Tain's retirement to a point of time at which Tain, per Garak, could not protect him anymore.
There's a possibility, that Tain was duly informed of the scandal, and chose to retire to avoid being implicated in it, or having fingers suspiciously pointed at him, had he stayed as head of the Obsidian Order.
Effectively, Tain washed his hands off the matter, thereby forcing, or rather, allowing Garak to slip into exile. Dukat's return to Cardassia, and Tain's retirement meant, that Garak was without protection on Cardassia.
My suspicion is, that "Elim" was really that daughter of a prominent Cardassian military official, and she got blown up in the shuttle.
It appears to me from Garak's tales, that at one time, she was a close colleague of Garak, and she found out, that Garak might not have been entirely loyal to Cardassia, of which Tain felt, that Garak betrayed him. We learn in episode "Cardassians", that Garak at one point was boastful of his contacts with the Bajoran underground. Strange, is it not?
Garak most likely released the children, then his colleague (the daughter) discovered that, decided to report it, and Garak had to make sure she didn't.
I also have another theory:
This daughter of a prominent Cardassian military official may have been the same woman linked to Dukat, who brought Rugal, the lost-and-much-later-found son of Cardassian exarch Kotan Pa'Dar, to the Bajoran orphanage.
Note, that Pa'Dar was Gul Dukat's rival in Cardassian politics, and Pa'Dar was the one, who decided to end the Cardassian Occupation of Bajor.
Garak may have gathered, that this same woman linked to Dukat was about to expose the scandal around Pa'Dar on her departure from Bajor, so he chose to subdue the scandal by letting the shuttle explode.
Cardassians
Garak did not intend to expose Dukat, because during Dukat's reign over Bajor, Garak's life on the planet probably depended on him not telling about the affair of Dukat's associate bringing Rugal to the orphanage. And other things. Garak knew that about Dukat, and Dukat knew that Garak knew.Dukat didn't have any need to humiliate Pa'Dar so long as Dukat was reigning over Bajor. What kept Dukat quiet, is, that Garak knew, too.
As the occupation of Bajor ended, the situation changed, and upon his return to Cardassia, Dukat may have intended to save his face by way of exposing Pa'Dar and undermining the politician who ended his occupation of Bajorans, and to simultaneously neutralise Garak's knowledge.
Garak, apparently, had enough foresight to make sure that there wasn't anyone else left to corrobarate Dukat's words.
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