Kommentaare Igor Mangi ennustustele ja selle kommentaaridele Delfis

Tähetark Igor Mang kirjutas järgmise, 2009. aasta horoskoobi ning Delfi ilalõuad on sellest isuga kinni haaranud. Vahele satub ka midagi intelligentset.

Igor Mang küll kirjutab, et mis juhtuda võib, arvestades teatud poliitikute gruppide võimule saamise võimalikkust kriisi ajal, kuid ei anna kindlalt mõista, kes täpselt saab võimule või mitte, sest kirjas on nimetatud mõlemad äärmused, nii Keskerakond kui ka Isamaaliit (eeldusel, et Reformierakond "esindab" siis niinimetatud kuldset keskteed). Teadupärast on järgmised valimised Euroopa Parlamenti ja kohalike omavalitsuste volikogudesse.

Mang pigem viitab rohkem kahele asjale, et kriisi ja musta stsenaariumi ajal võib võimule saada —

1. Kaua aega opositsioonis olnud partei, kuna olemasolevad võimukandjad on kaotanud rahva usalduse ja valijaskond, kes on seniseid võimukandjaid usaldanud, muutub apaatseks, jääb koju ja valimisurnide juures käivad vaid need inimesed, kes kindlatest ideoloogiatest läbiimmutatud (teise motivatsioonina võidakse opositsiooniline partei valida eriti halva majanduslanguse^™ eest näiteks kättemaksuks) ning siis võib esile tõusta tõenäosus, et peale jääb üks partei, mis suuremale osale kodanikest tegelikult ei meeldi (mitte nii ilus stsenaarium).
   Ainult et niisugusel juhul ei saa ülekaalukalt võimule saanud ebameeldiv partei alati oma asja ajada, sest selle pea kohal terendab kodanike püsiv ebasoosing ning tahes tahtmata on kogu ettevõtmine sunnitud sellisel juhul liikuma vaid õiges suunas, hoolimata äärmuslikuma liikmeskonna kaledast protestist.


2. Kui võimukandjate kriteeriumi laiendada, tuleb arvesse ka praegu tooli nühkivad riigikogujad ja pikemas perspektiivis senimaani varasemates valitsustes istunud partei/d. Sinna hulka kuulub näituseks ka Keskerakond, kes on alaliselt kõigist erakondadest kõige rohkem hääli saanud.


3. Vähem mustema stsenaariumi puhul võib võimule saada partei, mis ei ihka niivõrd võimu, kuivõrd soovib Eestile jätkusuutlikku lahendust. Sellisel juhul tuleks valijaskonna apaatsus välistada.

Samuti täheldab Mang ka seda, et ühiskonna liikmed — inimesed — ise peavad üksteisest rohkem hoolima ning sellisel juhul:

1. ei ole siis ka enam nii tähtis, kes võidab või ei võida — isiklikud- ja peresuhted on tähtsamad;
2. või kuna isiklikud ja peresuhted ongi tähtsad, arutavad hoolivad kodanikud omavahel kõik läbi ja valivad õige partei.

Ma ei ütle, milline partei on õige või vale. Mang tähendab, et võimule võib tulla partei, mis annab maaelule hoogu juurde. Võib juhtuda, et isegi kui sündmuste ahel nii õigesti ei lähe, võib maaelu siiski hoogu juurde saada rohujuure tasandil, osaliselt ignoreerides seda, mis toimub pealinnas. — Sest kui majandus ja ühiskonna tasakaal läheb õige metsapoole, tähendab see ka seda, et maaelu arendamiseks ei jää lihtsalt teist võimalust ja et muudmoodi ei saagi. See aga tähendab eri ühiskonnagruppide koostööd ja ka näiteks niisugust ühiskondlikku lepet, mis konkreetselt näiteks seaks eesmärgiks eesti rahva ja terve end Eestiga lõplikult ja lojaalselt sidunud elanikkonna jätkusuutliku arengu.

Kes oskab ridade vahelt lugeda, võib tõesti soovi korral leida teatud korrapärasuse lagunevate sündmuste ahelas, kus on välja tootud "kui-siis" stsenaariumid ja nende võimalikud tagajärjed.

Kui me suudame üheskoos toimida nii, nagu varemgi suutsime ja ellu jäime, läheb hästi. Ööülikoolis oli hiljuti just sügistalvel konverents-programm loengute seeriaga teemal "Kas on elu peale kapitalismi?", kus üks Venemaalt külas olnud akadeemik rääkis sellest, et tegelikult on inimkonnal igale probleemile lahendus olemas. Jah, toimuvad kataklüsmid (mõnikord ka väga kõrge hinnaga), kuid lahendus lõpuks leitakse ning sügavast august on suudetud mitmel korral välja tulla. Vähemalt inimkonna mõõtmes.

Mida siis uueks aastaks Eesti inimestele soovida. Loodetavasti läheb hästi ja kui vana asemele tuleb tõepoolest midagi uut, võetakse ikka kaasa kõik, mis on hea. Võib-olla ehk mitte nii materiaalses võtmes.

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Üldisemalt võttes on 2008. aasta sisse juhatanud jälle sigahuvitavad ajad. Kui maailma sündmusi laiemalt võtta, siis Mang ennustab kapitalismi ja kommunismi allakäiku (kui mitte hävingut), kuid ei peatu täpsemalt sellel, mis võib asemele tulla (liiga palju võimalusi??).

Et Eestis oli juba (omamoodi ettenägelik?) konverentside seeria postkapitalismi teemal, siis Wikipedia artikkel sellest on juba olemas ja seal on kirjas ka veel suhteliselt lühike nimekiri võimalikest postkapitalistliku elukorralduse variantidest.

Investor death over money lost in a huge Ponzi scheme

Gawker.com reports with possibly the best line:

“Bernie Madoff's $50 billion Ponzi scheme is growing fatally baroque. A French banker was found dead, in a grotesque office tableau, after losing $1.4 billion in the scheme.”

New York Police Commissioner Ray Kelly in an interview:

De La Villehuchet was found “with his feet propped up on his desk, a trash pail nearby to collect blood” and no sign of a second person.

The money manager had “multiple stab wounds” to his arms and wrists, and a box-cutter and pills were found nearby.

Perhaps the most insightful comment of the whole sordid affair questions the money manager's ability to stab himself first in one arm and then with the stabbed arm to stab the other arm, too. Click there on the + sign to expand for an equally insightful reply.

November 23-24 Snow Storm in Tallinn

Couldn't really call it a winter storm, because a week later much of the snow had melted and a week and a half later most of all of that snow was gone. The only thing the weather had to offer three weeks later was very, very slippery black ice.

Here's a list of links to photos on Flickr — the developers of which have provided great ways to manipulate with addresses to get all the right views.

A detailed view shows larger images in a page and a list only lists thumbnails.

User anjok was the only sensible person to upload her images under a Creative Commons license (using CC-BY-NC-ND).

22.11.:
By user moonrages — See how deep the cross is.

23.11.:
User anjok — detailed view
moonrages — detailed view
nikonsmypal — detailed view
sinnatagasi — detailed view
tomipildid — list of seaside images
tomipildid — Broken tree blocking the road
die5pezfabrik — A very good milieu image

24.11.:
User anjok — detailed view
die5pezfabrik — detailed view
jansolovjov — People shoveling their cars out of the snow
moonrages — detailed view
voyag — detailed view

25.11.: Aftermath
User 10175592@N07 — detailed view
 

Cold Y Generation

This is what I planned to write Wikipedia: Talk: Cold Y Generation, but for the sake of brevity there, I placed the bulk here. Maybe will expand later with more relevant stuff and other links.

We used fountain pens at first and second class (and maybe beyound) to exercise good handwriting (no "kid" font). The childhood historical shift was the end of the Cold War, but here termed as sovereign countries regaining their independence, which I recall in a manner similar to how User:209.6.159.204 remembers the Berlin Wall event: knowing that things happened, but confused at first as to why. So I never understood either (and was poorly interested on) what "Rambo" and "Commando" were until I learned their short synopses in my 20's and saw a couple scenes from these. I can vaguely remember the Challenger accident and the Chernobyl incident.

Ditto on reality tv and the MTV Generation. I am still aware of the much more simplistic way of life before the onslaught of Internet technology, of which I was a very early adopter compared to my peers at that time. 9/11 did make an impact, perhaps for the reasons of having been disinterested in evening news in early years and later having had the chance to follow 9/11 on the net through MSNBC's live feed (which was shown in a small window) to see the eventual demise of WTC7 (missed the first two towers because of school).

Never had a VHS player in a household and no cable for a very long time. Never got the vibe of popular local or U.S.-focused social networking websites targeted at Gen-Y'ers.

To present a cultural vantage point (like Jman did) of what I watched in the 1980's, then I can tell that I, perhaps willingly, as a means to an escapade, grew up on lots of TV: Soviet kid's cartoons and Estonian kid's films, MacGyver (on Finnish TV), Latino soaps and then throughout 1990's "Santa Barbara", "The A-Team" and "The Equalizer", the horrendous "Saved by the Bell" (still all 1980's stuff), some of "BH 90210" and "Melrose Place" (and "Valley of the Dolls" to boot :), "Star Trek: TNG", then later DS9 and followed Farscape into adulthood.

cbc.ca column

Press freedom

Some people are happy that CNN's satellite transmission license to broadcast live had expired and that it was not renewed by relevant officials (stops live reporting from the scene) :(

OTOH, quite a bad situation for India's media freedom reputation that the world's largest democracy suspended CNN's live transmission license. What broke the camel's neck?

According to Reporters Without Borders, India is still at a lowly #118, so next year the number might be lower, but who knows...

PÖFF: Films to Watch

I looked around the PÖFF schedule and found some very interesting stuff to take a look at and watch, too:

Canada: "Ce qu'il faut pour vivre" (French and Inuit languages)
"Winner of the Grand Prix des Ameriques as Best Film at the 2008 Montreal World Film Festival and Canada's official entry in the Best Foreign Language Oscar race..."

There are actually six films from Canada, but the site's search function is not designed to be very gracious and does not let the user copy the search results.

Estonia:
• "The Kings of the Time" centers on Estonia's puppet animation, Estonia's film animation in general and the people who laid the base for it
• "I was here" — Keywords: Drugs, sex, violence and loud music

Latvia: "The Soviet Story"
Lithuania: "When I Was A Partizan"
Germany: "The Wave"

Two points: World's soundest banks and how forward-looking Estonians are

In July, a family member in Canada wondered if another depression is going to happen in the U.S. and how it will affect Canada.

Well, it may be somewhat early to think of a depression yet (I'm trying to be an optimist, or maybe is it, that my worrylessness may actually be complacency), but it's always best to be careful. "Better safe than sorry" sounds perhaps a bit too cliché. At least right now, people are bracing for the impact that this negative growth is (also called a recession, mostly after the fact).

I do have to add that Canada has soundest banking system in the world, with Sweden at #2 and most large Estonian banks belong to Nordic banking companies.

Of course, the latest Time article about Estonia is not so bloomy anymore about Estonia. After all, if you're exemplified all around the world for being great when times are good, remember to expect being reported on at difficult times (and how you're faring).

This Time piece by Andrew Purvis reflects on Estonians' reputation for "being practical, down-to-earth, and forward-looking." The latter notion being rather telling, because in "The Baltic Mourning After", the same author has noticed "Black banners for a lecture series [...] in Tallinn asking: IS THERE LIFE AFTER CAPITALISM?"

The lecture series happened in October (with the end of the month culminating with the screening of "The Corporation", a Canadian documentary) and still continues to happen in November.

Links and comments

• 21.10.: Canada rated world's soundest bank system
  You just have to love those oddball news sites that still keep their articles :-)
  
  Op-Eds:
• 31.10.: Strong, safe and open for business
• 03.11.: Mel Watkins . Still strong and free
• 10.11.: Why Canada's Banks Don't Need Help
  — With a link to a somewhat sardonic gallery of Top Ten Scared Traders at the end of the article. || I guess the guys and gals there will be remembered as really-really brave for having had the guts to yo-yo, swing and zigzag through the precarious financial mêlée that befell in their midst.
  
  Doubt has also been creeping in:
• 13.11.: Experts not sold on bank strength
  I'd say rather that a sound banking system allows a country to tough it out through the rough times with less pain than those rated to be in their forties. I remember a piece in The Economist which mentioned that wealthy countries will have it harder than poor countries, because the latter have a difficult life anyway.